Oliveira Hospital vs Benfica Castelo Branco — League #459 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 3+ matches
Oliveira Hospital44%
Benfica Castelo Branco28%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Oliveira Hospital creates 34% more chances
Season form · 9 home / 3 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under62
- Over38
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No56
- Yes44
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Oliveira Hospital ↓
Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Oliveira Hospital at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches
Benfica Castelo Branco away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Oliveira Hospital attack 1.22 + Benfica Castelo Branco defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27
Benfica Castelo Branco attack 1.00 + Oliveira Hospital defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.95
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
Oliveira Hospital at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "Oliveira Hospital will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Benfica Castelo Branco substitutes
Oliveira Hospital host Benfica Castelo Branco on Sunday, 19 January 2020 at 15:00. The match is part of the League #459 2026/2027 season.
League #459: Oliveira Hospital 0–3 Benfica Castelo Branco
Benfica Castelo Branco beat Oliveira Hospital 3-0 in League #459 on January 19, 2020.
Goals: Rafael Pinto (44'), Murilo Rosa (57'), Tiago Dias (65' o.g.).
The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Oliveira do Hospital (Oliveira do Hospital).