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Oliveira Hospital vs Atlético Malveira — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round 2022

Oliveira Hospital
Oliveira Hospital
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Atlético Malveira
Atlético Malveira
5/31/2026Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion RoundCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round · Promotion Round - 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Oliveira Hospital29%
×Draw32%
Atlético Malveira38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oliveira Hospital
0.83
Atlético Malveira
1.00

Atlético Malveira creates 20% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Oliveira Hospital
1.00
Atlético Malveira
0.67

allows per match

Oliveira Hospital
1.33
Atlético Malveira
0.67

finishing

Oliveira Hospital+0.00on par
Atlético Malveira+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oliveira Hospital ↓

Atlético Malveira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–116%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Oliveira Hospital or draw
62%
Oliveira Hospital or Atlético Malveira
68%
Draw or Atlético Malveira
71%

Winning margin

Oliveira Hospital wins by 2+
10%
Atlético Malveira wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Oliveira Hospital 1+ goals
56%
Oliveira Hospital 2+ goals
20%
Oliveira Hospital 3+ goals
5%
Atlético Malveira 1+ goals
63%
Atlético Malveira 2+ goals
26%
Atlético Malveira 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Oliveira Hospital (draw refunded)
43%
Atlético Malveira (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oliveira Hospital at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Atlético Malveira away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oliveira Hospital attack 1.00 + Atlético Malveira defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Atlético Malveira attack 0.67 + Oliveira Hospital defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Oliveira Hospital scores more
29%
level
32%
Atlético Malveira scores more
38%

Atlético Malveira at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Atlético Malveira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round: Oliveira Hospital 1–1 Atlético Malveira

Oliveira Hospital and Atlético Malveira drew 1-1 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round on May 31, 2026.