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Olimpo Bahia Blanca vs Gimnasia Y Tiro — Torneo Federal A 2018

Olimpo Bahia Blanca
Olimpo Bahia Blanca
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Gimnasia Y Tiro
Gimnasia Y Tiro
11/26/2023Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Promotion Play-offs - 3rd RoundEstadio Roberto Natalio Carminatti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Olimpo Bahia Blanca54%
×Draw29%
Gimnasia Y Tiro17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpo Bahia Blanca
1.32
Gimnasia Y Tiro
0.61

Olimpo Bahia Blanca creates 116% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 64 away

creates per match

Olimpo Bahia Blanca
1.56
Gimnasia Y Tiro
0.64

allows per match

Olimpo Bahia Blanca
0.59
Gimnasia Y Tiro
1.08

finishing

Olimpo Bahia Blanca+0.00on par
Gimnasia Y Tiro+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpo Bahia Blanca ↓

Gimnasia Y Tiro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Olimpo Bahia Blanca or draw
83%
Olimpo Bahia Blanca or Gimnasia Y Tiro
71%
Draw or Gimnasia Y Tiro
46%

Winning margin

Olimpo Bahia Blanca wins by 2+
26%
Gimnasia Y Tiro wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Olimpo Bahia Blanca 1+ goals
73%
Olimpo Bahia Blanca 2+ goals
38%
Olimpo Bahia Blanca 3+ goals
15%
Gimnasia Y Tiro 1+ goals
46%
Gimnasia Y Tiro 2+ goals
13%
Gimnasia Y Tiro 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Olimpo Bahia Blanca (draw refunded)
76%
Gimnasia Y Tiro (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpo Bahia Blanca at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.59 · 108 matches

Gimnasia Y Tiro away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.08 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpo Bahia Blanca attack 1.56 + Gimnasia Y Tiro defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.32

Gimnasia Y Tiro attack 0.64 + Olimpo Bahia Blanca defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Olimpo Bahia Blanca scores more
54%
level
29%
Gimnasia Y Tiro scores more
17%

Olimpo Bahia Blanca at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Olimpo Bahia Blanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olimpo Bahia Blanca vs Gimnasia Y Tiro

Gimnasia Y Tiro beat Olimpo Bahia Blanca 1-0 in Torneo Federal A on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Roberto Natalio Carminatti in Bahía Blanca, Provincia de Buenos Aires.