Olimpo Bahia Blanca 1–0 Estudiantes S.l.

Olimpo Bahia Blanca

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Estudiantes S.l.

6/12/2022

Torneo Federal A · Group A - 13Estadio Roberto Natalio Carminatti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Olimpo Bahia Blanca56%

×Draw27%

Estudiantes S.l.17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olimpo Bahia BlancaExpected goals in this matchEstudiantes S.l.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.66

Olimpo Bahia Blanca

1.43

Estudiantes S.l.

0.66

Olimpo Bahia Blanca creates 117% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 103 away

1.56

creates per match

0.72

0.59

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Olimpo Bahia Blanca

1.56

Estudiantes S.l.

0.72

allows per match

Olimpo Bahia Blanca

0.59

Estudiantes S.l.

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olimpo Bahia Blanca+0.00on par

Estudiantes S.l.+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpo Bahia Blanca ↓

Estudiantes S.l. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Olimpo Bahia Blanca or draw

83%

Olimpo Bahia Blanca or Estudiantes S.l.

73%

Draw or Estudiantes S.l.

44%

Winning margin

Olimpo Bahia Blanca wins by 2+

28%

Estudiantes S.l. wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Olimpo Bahia Blanca 1+ goals

76%

Olimpo Bahia Blanca 2+ goals

42%

Olimpo Bahia Blanca 3+ goals

17%

Estudiantes S.l. 1+ goals

48%

Estudiantes S.l. 2+ goals

14%

Estudiantes S.l. 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Olimpo Bahia Blanca (draw refunded)

76%

Estudiantes S.l. (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpo Bahia Blanca at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.59 · 108 matches

Estudiantes S.l. away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.30 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpo Bahia Blanca attack 1.56 + Estudiantes S.l. defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.43

Estudiantes S.l. attack 0.72 + Olimpo Bahia Blanca defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Olimpo Bahia Blanca scores more

56%

level

27%

Estudiantes S.l. scores more

17%

Olimpo Bahia Blanca at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Olimpo Bahia Blanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff