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Olimpik Sarajevo vs Zrinjski — Premijer Liga 2019

Olimpik Sarajevo
Olimpik Sarajevo
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Zrinjski
Zrinjski
10/24/2020Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 12Stadion Otoka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Olimpik Sarajevo23%
×Draw26%
Zrinjski50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpik Sarajevo
0.92
Zrinjski
1.49

Zrinjski creates 62% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 109 away

creates per match

Olimpik Sarajevo
1.13
Zrinjski
1.45

allows per match

Olimpik Sarajevo
1.53
Zrinjski
0.71

finishing

Olimpik Sarajevo+0.00on par
Zrinjski+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpik Sarajevo ↓

Zrinjski →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Olimpik Sarajevo or draw
50%
Olimpik Sarajevo or Zrinjski
74%
Draw or Zrinjski
77%

Winning margin

Olimpik Sarajevo wins by 2+
8%
Zrinjski wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Olimpik Sarajevo 1+ goals
60%
Olimpik Sarajevo 2+ goals
23%
Olimpik Sarajevo 3+ goals
7%
Zrinjski 1+ goals
77%
Zrinjski 2+ goals
44%
Zrinjski 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Olimpik Sarajevo (draw refunded)
32%
Zrinjski (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpik Sarajevo at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

Zrinjski away — creates 1.45, concedes 0.71 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpik Sarajevo attack 1.13 + Zrinjski defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.92

Zrinjski attack 1.45 + Olimpik Sarajevo defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Olimpik Sarajevo scores more
23%
level
26%
Zrinjski scores more
50%

Zrinjski at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Zrinjski will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premijer Liga: Olimpik Sarajevo 3–0 Zrinjski

Olimpik Sarajevo beat Zrinjski 3-0 in Premijer Liga on October 24, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Otoka in Sarajevo.