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Olimpik Sarajevo vs Tuzla City — Premijer Liga 2019

Olimpik Sarajevo
Olimpik Sarajevo
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Tuzla City
Tuzla City
11/28/2020Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 16Stadion Otoka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Olimpik Sarajevo39%
×Draw26%
Tuzla City35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpik Sarajevo
1.36
Tuzla City
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 78 away

creates per match

Olimpik Sarajevo
1.13
Tuzla City
1.04

allows per match

Olimpik Sarajevo
1.53
Tuzla City
1.59

finishing

Olimpik Sarajevo+0.00on par
Tuzla City+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpik Sarajevo ↓

Tuzla City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Olimpik Sarajevo or draw
65%
Olimpik Sarajevo or Tuzla City
74%
Draw or Tuzla City
61%

Winning margin

Olimpik Sarajevo wins by 2+
18%
Tuzla City wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Olimpik Sarajevo 1+ goals
74%
Olimpik Sarajevo 2+ goals
39%
Olimpik Sarajevo 3+ goals
16%
Tuzla City 1+ goals
72%
Tuzla City 2+ goals
37%
Tuzla City 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Olimpik Sarajevo (draw refunded)
52%
Tuzla City (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpik Sarajevo at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

Tuzla City away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.59 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpik Sarajevo attack 1.13 + Tuzla City defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.36

Tuzla City attack 1.04 + Olimpik Sarajevo defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Olimpik Sarajevo scores more
39%
level
26%
Tuzla City scores more
35%

Olimpik Sarajevo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Olimpik Sarajevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premijer Liga: Olimpik Sarajevo 3–2 Tuzla City

Olimpik Sarajevo beat Tuzla City 3-2 in Premijer Liga on November 28, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Otoka in Sarajevo.