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Olimpik Sarajevo vs Travnik — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Olimpik Sarajevo
Olimpik Sarajevo
FT
2 – 1
Travnik
Travnik
8/17/20191st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 2Stadion Otoka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Olimpik Sarajevo64%
×Draw22%
Travnik14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpik Sarajevo
1.85
Travnik
0.71

Olimpik Sarajevo creates 161% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 80 away

creates per match

Olimpik Sarajevo
2.00
Travnik
0.91

allows per match

Olimpik Sarajevo
0.50
Travnik
1.71

finishing

Olimpik Sarajevo+0.00on par
Travnik+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpik Sarajevo ↓

Travnik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Olimpik Sarajevo or draw
86%
Olimpik Sarajevo or Travnik
78%
Draw or Travnik
36%

Winning margin

Olimpik Sarajevo wins by 2+
38%
Travnik wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Olimpik Sarajevo 1+ goals
84%
Olimpik Sarajevo 2+ goals
55%
Olimpik Sarajevo 3+ goals
28%
Travnik 1+ goals
51%
Travnik 2+ goals
16%
Travnik 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Olimpik Sarajevo (draw refunded)
82%
Travnik (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpik Sarajevo at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

Travnik away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.71 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpik Sarajevo attack 2.00 + Travnik defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.85

Travnik attack 0.91 + Olimpik Sarajevo defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Olimpik Sarajevo scores more
64%
level
22%
Travnik scores more
14%

Olimpik Sarajevo at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Olimpik Sarajevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Olimpik Sarajevo 2–1 Travnik

Olimpik Sarajevo beat Travnik 2-1 in 1st League - FBiH on August 17, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Otoka in Sarajevo.