Olimpik Sarajevo 2–0 TOŠK Tešanj: Result & Stats

Olimpik Sarajevo

FT

2 – 0

TOŠK Tešanj

10/13/2019

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 10Stadion Otoka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Olimpik Sarajevo59%

×Draw23%

TOŠK Tešanj18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olimpik SarajevoExpected goals in this matchTOŠK Tešanj

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.85

Olimpik Sarajevo

1.77

TOŠK Tešanj

0.85

Olimpik Sarajevo creates 108% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 95 away

2.00

creates per match

1.21

0.50

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Olimpik Sarajevo

2.00

TOŠK Tešanj

1.21

allows per match

Olimpik Sarajevo

0.50

TOŠK Tešanj

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olimpik Sarajevo+0.00on par

TOŠK Tešanj+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpik Sarajevo ↓

TOŠK Tešanj →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Olimpik Sarajevo or draw

82%

Olimpik Sarajevo or TOŠK Tešanj

77%

Draw or TOŠK Tešanj

41%

Winning margin

Olimpik Sarajevo wins by 2+

34%

TOŠK Tešanj wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Olimpik Sarajevo 1+ goals

83%

Olimpik Sarajevo 2+ goals

53%

Olimpik Sarajevo 3+ goals

26%

TOŠK Tešanj 1+ goals

57%

TOŠK Tešanj 2+ goals

21%

TOŠK Tešanj 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Olimpik Sarajevo (draw refunded)

77%

TOŠK Tešanj (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpik Sarajevo at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

TOŠK Tešanj away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.54 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpik Sarajevo attack 2.00 + TOŠK Tešanj defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.77

TOŠK Tešanj attack 1.21 + Olimpik Sarajevo defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Olimpik Sarajevo scores more

59%

level

23%

TOŠK Tešanj scores more

18%

Olimpik Sarajevo at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Olimpik Sarajevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff