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Olimpik Sarajevo vs Slaven Živinice — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Olimpik Sarajevo
Olimpik Sarajevo
FT
2 – 0
Slaven Živinice
Slaven Živinice
3/7/20201st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 16Stadion Otoka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Olimpik Sarajevo79%
×Draw15%
Slaven Živinice7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpik Sarajevo
2.39
Slaven Živinice
0.53

Olimpik Sarajevo creates 351% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 23 away

creates per match

Olimpik Sarajevo
2.00
Slaven Živinice
0.57

allows per match

Olimpik Sarajevo
0.50
Slaven Živinice
2.78

finishing

Olimpik Sarajevo+0.00on par
Slaven Živinice+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpik Sarajevo ↓

Slaven Živinice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Olimpik Sarajevo or draw
93%
Olimpik Sarajevo or Slaven Živinice
85%
Draw or Slaven Živinice
21%

Winning margin

Olimpik Sarajevo wins by 2+
55%
Slaven Živinice wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Olimpik Sarajevo 1+ goals
91%
Olimpik Sarajevo 2+ goals
69%
Olimpik Sarajevo 3+ goals
42%
Slaven Živinice 1+ goals
41%
Slaven Živinice 2+ goals
10%
Slaven Živinice 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Olimpik Sarajevo (draw refunded)
92%
Slaven Živinice (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpik Sarajevo at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

Slaven Živinice away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.78 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpik Sarajevo attack 2.00 + Slaven Živinice defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.39

Slaven Živinice attack 0.57 + Olimpik Sarajevo defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Olimpik Sarajevo scores more
79%
level
15%
Slaven Živinice scores more
7%

Olimpik Sarajevo at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Olimpik Sarajevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Olimpik Sarajevo 2–0 Slaven Živinice

Olimpik Sarajevo beat Slaven Živinice 2-0 in 1st League - FBiH on March 7, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Otoka in Sarajevo.