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Olimpik Sarajevo vs Radnik Hadžići — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Olimpik Sarajevo
Olimpik Sarajevo
FT
2 – 1
Radnik Hadžići
Radnik Hadžići
11/16/20191st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 15Stadion Otoka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Olimpik Sarajevo63%
×Draw23%
Radnik Hadžići15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpik Sarajevo
1.79
Radnik Hadžići
0.73

Olimpik Sarajevo creates 145% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 94 away

creates per match

Olimpik Sarajevo
2.00
Radnik Hadžići
0.97

allows per match

Olimpik Sarajevo
0.50
Radnik Hadžići
1.59

finishing

Olimpik Sarajevo+0.00on par
Radnik Hadžići+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpik Sarajevo ↓

Radnik Hadžići →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Olimpik Sarajevo or draw
85%
Olimpik Sarajevo or Radnik Hadžići
77%
Draw or Radnik Hadžići
37%

Winning margin

Olimpik Sarajevo wins by 2+
36%
Radnik Hadžići wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Olimpik Sarajevo 1+ goals
83%
Olimpik Sarajevo 2+ goals
53%
Olimpik Sarajevo 3+ goals
26%
Radnik Hadžići 1+ goals
52%
Radnik Hadžići 2+ goals
17%
Radnik Hadžići 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Olimpik Sarajevo (draw refunded)
81%
Radnik Hadžići (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpik Sarajevo at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

Radnik Hadžići away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.59 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpik Sarajevo attack 2.00 + Radnik Hadžići defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.79

Radnik Hadžići attack 0.97 + Olimpik Sarajevo defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Olimpik Sarajevo scores more
63%
level
23%
Radnik Hadžići scores more
15%

Olimpik Sarajevo at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Olimpik Sarajevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Olimpik Sarajevo 2–1 Radnik Hadžići

Olimpik Sarajevo beat Radnik Hadžići 2-1 in 1st League - FBiH on November 16, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Otoka in Sarajevo.