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Olimpik Sarajevo vs Metalleghe-BSI Jajce — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Olimpik Sarajevo
Olimpik Sarajevo
FT
2 – 2
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
9/27/20191st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 8Stadion Otoka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Olimpik Sarajevo73%
×Draw18%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpik Sarajevo
2.19
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
0.63

Olimpik Sarajevo creates 248% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

Olimpik Sarajevo
2.00
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
0.75

allows per match

Olimpik Sarajevo
0.50
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
2.38

finishing

Olimpik Sarajevo+0.00on par
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpik Sarajevo ↓

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Olimpik Sarajevo or draw
91%
Olimpik Sarajevo or Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
82%
Draw or Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
27%

Winning margin

Olimpik Sarajevo wins by 2+
48%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Olimpik Sarajevo 1+ goals
89%
Olimpik Sarajevo 2+ goals
64%
Olimpik Sarajevo 3+ goals
37%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce 1+ goals
47%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce 2+ goals
13%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Olimpik Sarajevo (draw refunded)
89%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpik Sarajevo at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpik Sarajevo attack 2.00 + Metalleghe-BSI Jajce defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.19

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce attack 0.75 + Olimpik Sarajevo defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Olimpik Sarajevo scores more
73%
level
18%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce scores more
9%

Olimpik Sarajevo at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Olimpik Sarajevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olimpik Sarajevo vs Metalleghe-BSI Jajce

Olimpik Sarajevo and Metalleghe-BSI Jajce drew 2-2 in 1st League - FBiH on September 27, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Otoka in Sarajevo.