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Olimpik Sarajevo vs GOŠK Gabela — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Olimpik Sarajevo
Olimpik Sarajevo
FT
1 – 0
GOŠK Gabela
GOŠK Gabela
11/2/20191st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 13Stadion Otoka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Olimpik Sarajevo52%
×Draw26%
GOŠK Gabela22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpik Sarajevo
1.54
GOŠK Gabela
0.90

Olimpik Sarajevo creates 71% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 66 away

creates per match

Olimpik Sarajevo
2.00
GOŠK Gabela
1.29

allows per match

Olimpik Sarajevo
0.50
GOŠK Gabela
1.08

finishing

Olimpik Sarajevo+0.00on par
GOŠK Gabela+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpik Sarajevo ↓

GOŠK Gabela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Olimpik Sarajevo or draw
78%
Olimpik Sarajevo or GOŠK Gabela
74%
Draw or GOŠK Gabela
48%

Winning margin

Olimpik Sarajevo wins by 2+
27%
GOŠK Gabela wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Olimpik Sarajevo 1+ goals
79%
Olimpik Sarajevo 2+ goals
45%
Olimpik Sarajevo 3+ goals
20%
GOŠK Gabela 1+ goals
59%
GOŠK Gabela 2+ goals
23%
GOŠK Gabela 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Olimpik Sarajevo (draw refunded)
70%
GOŠK Gabela (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpik Sarajevo at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

GOŠK Gabela away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.08 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpik Sarajevo attack 2.00 + GOŠK Gabela defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.54

GOŠK Gabela attack 1.29 + Olimpik Sarajevo defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Olimpik Sarajevo scores more
52%
level
26%
GOŠK Gabela scores more
22%

Olimpik Sarajevo at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Olimpik Sarajevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Olimpik Sarajevo 1–0 GOŠK Gabela

Olimpik Sarajevo beat GOŠK Gabela 1-0 in 1st League - FBiH on November 2, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Otoka in Sarajevo.