Olimpik Sarajevo 1–0 Čapljina: Result & Stats

Olimpik Sarajevo

FT

1 – 0

Čapljina

8/31/2019

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 4Stadion Otoka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Olimpik Sarajevo67%

×Draw20%

Čapljina12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olimpik SarajevoExpected goals in this matchČapljina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

0.71

Olimpik Sarajevo

1.98

Čapljina

0.71

Olimpik Sarajevo creates 179% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 23 away

2.00

creates per match

0.91

0.50

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Olimpik Sarajevo

2.00

Čapljina

0.91

allows per match

Olimpik Sarajevo

0.50

Čapljina

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olimpik Sarajevo+0.00on par

Čapljina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpik Sarajevo ↓

Čapljina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Olimpik Sarajevo or draw

88%

Olimpik Sarajevo or Čapljina

80%

Draw or Čapljina

33%

Winning margin

Olimpik Sarajevo wins by 2+

42%

Čapljina wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Olimpik Sarajevo 1+ goals

86%

Olimpik Sarajevo 2+ goals

59%

Olimpik Sarajevo 3+ goals

31%

Čapljina 1+ goals

51%

Čapljina 2+ goals

16%

Čapljina 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Olimpik Sarajevo (draw refunded)

84%

Čapljina (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpik Sarajevo at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

Čapljina away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.96 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpik Sarajevo attack 2.00 + Čapljina defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.98

Čapljina attack 0.91 + Olimpik Sarajevo defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Olimpik Sarajevo scores more

67%

level

20%

Čapljina scores more

12%

Olimpik Sarajevo at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Olimpik Sarajevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff