Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Olimpik Sarajevo vs Borac Banja Luka — Premijer Liga 2019

Olimpik Sarajevo
Olimpik Sarajevo
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Borac Banja Luka
Borac Banja Luka
9/26/2020Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 9Stadion Otoka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Olimpik Sarajevo28%
×Draw27%
Borac Banja Luka45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpik Sarajevo
1.05
Borac Banja Luka
1.42

Borac Banja Luka creates 35% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 109 away

creates per match

Olimpik Sarajevo
1.13
Borac Banja Luka
1.30

allows per match

Olimpik Sarajevo
1.53
Borac Banja Luka
0.98

finishing

Olimpik Sarajevo+0.00on par
Borac Banja Luka+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpik Sarajevo ↓

Borac Banja Luka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Olimpik Sarajevo or draw
55%
Olimpik Sarajevo or Borac Banja Luka
73%
Draw or Borac Banja Luka
72%

Winning margin

Olimpik Sarajevo wins by 2+
11%
Borac Banja Luka wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Olimpik Sarajevo 1+ goals
65%
Olimpik Sarajevo 2+ goals
28%
Olimpik Sarajevo 3+ goals
9%
Borac Banja Luka 1+ goals
76%
Borac Banja Luka 2+ goals
41%
Borac Banja Luka 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Olimpik Sarajevo (draw refunded)
38%
Borac Banja Luka (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpik Sarajevo at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

Borac Banja Luka away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.98 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpik Sarajevo attack 1.13 + Borac Banja Luka defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.05

Borac Banja Luka attack 1.30 + Olimpik Sarajevo defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Olimpik Sarajevo scores more
28%
level
27%
Borac Banja Luka scores more
45%

Borac Banja Luka at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Borac Banja Luka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olimpik Sarajevo vs Borac Banja Luka

Borac Banja Luka beat Olimpik Sarajevo 4-1 in Premijer Liga on September 26, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Otoka in Sarajevo.