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Olimpik-Mobiuz vs Respublika FA — Pro League A 2026

Olimpik-Mobiuz
Olimpik-Mobiuz
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Respublika FA
Respublika FA
B. Kuanishbayev 85'
J. Juraev 83'
S. Khamidov 13' (OG)
4/21/2026Pro League APro League A · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Olimpik-Mobiuz43%
×Draw27%
Respublika FA30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpik-Mobiuz
1.38
Respublika FA
1.10

Olimpik-Mobiuz creates 25% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 6 away

creates per match

Olimpik-Mobiuz
1.59
Respublika FA
1.17

allows per match

Olimpik-Mobiuz
1.03
Respublika FA
1.17

finishing

Olimpik-Mobiuz+0.00on par
Respublika FA+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpik-Mobiuz ↓

Respublika FA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Olimpik-Mobiuz or draw
70%
Olimpik-Mobiuz or Respublika FA
73%
Draw or Respublika FA
57%

Winning margin

Olimpik-Mobiuz wins by 2+
20%
Respublika FA wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Olimpik-Mobiuz 1+ goals
75%
Olimpik-Mobiuz 2+ goals
40%
Olimpik-Mobiuz 3+ goals
16%
Respublika FA 1+ goals
67%
Respublika FA 2+ goals
30%
Respublika FA 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Olimpik-Mobiuz (draw refunded)
59%
Respublika FA (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpik-Mobiuz at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.03 · 29 matches

Respublika FA away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpik-Mobiuz attack 1.59 + Respublika FA defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.38

Respublika FA attack 1.17 + Olimpik-Mobiuz defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Olimpik-Mobiuz scores more
43%
level
27%
Respublika FA scores more
30%

Olimpik-Mobiuz at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Olimpik-Mobiuz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
S. KhamidovOwn goal
83'
J. Juraev
85'
B. Kuanishbayev

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pro League A: Olimpik-Mobiuz 2–1 Respublika FA

Olimpik-Mobiuz beat Respublika FA 2-1 in Pro League A on April 21, 2026.

Goals: S. Khamidov (13' o.g.), J. Juraev (83'), B. Kuanishbayev (85').