Olimpik-Mobiuz 1–1 Dostlik: Result & Stats

Olimpik-Mobiuz

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Dostlik

11/11/2024

Pro League A · Round 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Olimpik-Mobiuz54%

×Draw26%

Dostlik21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olimpik-MobiuzExpected goals in this matchDostlik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.85

Olimpik-Mobiuz

1.54

Dostlik

0.85

Olimpik-Mobiuz creates 81% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 14 away

1.52

creates per match

0.71

1.00

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Olimpik-Mobiuz

1.52

Dostlik

0.71

allows per match

Olimpik-Mobiuz

1.00

Dostlik

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olimpik-Mobiuz+0.00on par

Dostlik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpik-Mobiuz ↓

Dostlik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Olimpik-Mobiuz or draw

79%

Olimpik-Mobiuz or Dostlik

74%

Draw or Dostlik

46%

Winning margin

Olimpik-Mobiuz wins by 2+

28%

Dostlik wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Olimpik-Mobiuz 1+ goals

79%

Olimpik-Mobiuz 2+ goals

45%

Olimpik-Mobiuz 3+ goals

20%

Dostlik 1+ goals

57%

Dostlik 2+ goals

21%

Dostlik 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Olimpik-Mobiuz (draw refunded)

72%

Dostlik (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpik-Mobiuz at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.00 · 27 matches

Dostlik away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpik-Mobiuz attack 1.52 + Dostlik defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.54

Dostlik attack 0.71 + Olimpik-Mobiuz defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Olimpik-Mobiuz scores more

54%

level

26%

Dostlik scores more

21%

Olimpik-Mobiuz at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Olimpik-Mobiuz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff