Olimpik Donetsk 3–2 Oleksandria: Result & Stats

Olimpik Donetsk

FT

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

Oleksandria

I. Zotko 44' (pen)

V. Baboglo 25' (OG)

S. Zahedi 8'

D. Grechyshkin 90+3' (pen)

A. Sitalo 62'

10/4/2020

Premier League · Round 5Valeriy Lobanovskyi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Olimpik Donetsk32%

×Draw26%

Oleksandria41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olimpik DonetskExpected goals in this matchOleksandria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.40

Olimpik Donetsk

1.21

Oleksandria

1.40

Oleksandria creates 16% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 101 away

1.12

creates per match

1.04

1.76

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Olimpik Donetsk

1.12

Oleksandria

1.04

allows per match

Olimpik Donetsk

1.76

Oleksandria

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olimpik Donetsk+0.00on par

Oleksandria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpik Donetsk ↓

Oleksandria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Olimpik Donetsk or draw

59%

Olimpik Donetsk or Oleksandria

74%

Draw or Oleksandria

68%

Winning margin

Olimpik Donetsk wins by 2+

14%

Oleksandria wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Olimpik Donetsk 1+ goals

70%

Olimpik Donetsk 2+ goals

34%

Olimpik Donetsk 3+ goals

12%

Oleksandria 1+ goals

75%

Oleksandria 2+ goals

41%

Oleksandria 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Olimpik Donetsk (draw refunded)

44%

Oleksandria (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpik Donetsk at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

Oleksandria away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.29 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpik Donetsk attack 1.12 + Oleksandria defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Oleksandria attack 1.04 + Olimpik Donetsk defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Olimpik Donetsk scores more

32%

level

26%

Oleksandria scores more

41%

Oleksandria at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Oleksandria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

S. Zahedi

25'

V. BabogloOwn goal

34'

M. Zaderaka← V. Luchkevych

44'

Vladyslav Babohlo

44'

I. ZotkoPenalty

45'

Sergiy Politylo

45'

Evgen Banada

46'

B. Myshenko← D. Ustymenko

55'

P. Ksonz← Y. Pasich

55'

T. Chogadze← S. Zahedi

60'

Maxime Teixeira

62'

A. Sitalo

67'

I. Kargbo← M. Teixeira

67'

D. Grishko← I. Zotko

73'

Ihor Snurnitsyn

81'

D. Bezborodko← A. Sitalo

86'

D. Romanovskij← T. Zaviyskyi

86'

V. Yanchak← M. Tretyakov

90'

Dmytro Grechyshkin

90+3'

D. GrechyshkinPenalty

Possession

Shots

Statistics

OlimpikOleksandria

Overview

62%Possession38%

12Total Shots9

6Corners2

11Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots9

6On Target5

6Off Target4

Passing

62%Possession38%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls9

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

0Offsides1