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Olimpik Donetsk vs Alians Lypova Dolyna — Persha Liga 2019

Olimpik Donetsk
Olimpik Donetsk
CANC
14:00
Alians Lypova Dolyna
Alians Lypova Dolyna
5/7/2022Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 28Stadion Mynai

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Olimpik Donetsk30%
×Draw27%
Alians Lypova Dolyna42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpik Donetsk
1.08
Alians Lypova Dolyna
1.32

Alians Lypova Dolyna creates 22% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 25 away

creates per match

Olimpik Donetsk
1.00
Alians Lypova Dolyna
1.52

allows per match

Olimpik Donetsk
1.13
Alians Lypova Dolyna
1.16

finishing

Olimpik Donetsk+0.00on par
Alians Lypova Dolyna+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpik Donetsk ↓

Alians Lypova Dolyna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Olimpik Donetsk or draw
58%
Olimpik Donetsk or Alians Lypova Dolyna
73%
Draw or Alians Lypova Dolyna
70%

Winning margin

Olimpik Donetsk wins by 2+
12%
Alians Lypova Dolyna wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Olimpik Donetsk 1+ goals
66%
Olimpik Donetsk 2+ goals
29%
Olimpik Donetsk 3+ goals
10%
Alians Lypova Dolyna 1+ goals
73%
Alians Lypova Dolyna 2+ goals
38%
Alians Lypova Dolyna 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Olimpik Donetsk (draw refunded)
42%
Alians Lypova Dolyna (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpik Donetsk at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Alians Lypova Dolyna away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpik Donetsk attack 1.00 + Alians Lypova Dolyna defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.08

Alians Lypova Dolyna attack 1.52 + Olimpik Donetsk defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Olimpik Donetsk scores more
30%
level
27%
Alians Lypova Dolyna scores more
42%

Alians Lypova Dolyna at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Alians Lypova Dolyna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Olimpik Donetsk host Alians Lypova Dolyna

May 7, 2022: Olimpik Donetsk take on Alians Lypova Dolyna in Persha Liga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Olimpik Donetsk host Alians Lypova Dolyna at Stadion Mynai.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.