Olimpija Ljubljana 0–1 Slovan Bratislava

Olimpija Ljubljana

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Slovan Bratislava

10/5/2023

UEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 2Stadion Stožice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Olimpija Ljubljana48%

×Draw26%

Slovan Bratislava26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olimpija LjubljanaExpected goals in this matchSlovan Bratislava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.03

Olimpija Ljubljana

1.48

Slovan Bratislava

1.03

Olimpija Ljubljana creates 44% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 15 away

1.44

creates per match

1.13

0.94

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Olimpija Ljubljana

1.44

Slovan Bratislava

1.13

allows per match

Olimpija Ljubljana

0.94

Slovan Bratislava

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olimpija Ljubljana+0.00on par

Slovan Bratislava+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpija Ljubljana ↓

Slovan Bratislava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Olimpija Ljubljana or draw

74%

Olimpija Ljubljana or Slovan Bratislava

74%

Draw or Slovan Bratislava

52%

Winning margin

Olimpija Ljubljana wins by 2+

24%

Slovan Bratislava wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Olimpija Ljubljana 1+ goals

77%

Olimpija Ljubljana 2+ goals

43%

Olimpija Ljubljana 3+ goals

19%

Slovan Bratislava 1+ goals

64%

Slovan Bratislava 2+ goals

28%

Slovan Bratislava 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Olimpija Ljubljana (draw refunded)

64%

Slovan Bratislava (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpija Ljubljana at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.94 · 16 matches

Slovan Bratislava away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpija Ljubljana attack 1.44 + Slovan Bratislava defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.48

Slovan Bratislava attack 1.13 + Olimpija Ljubljana defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Olimpija Ljubljana scores more

48%

level

26%

Slovan Bratislava scores more

26%

Olimpija Ljubljana at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Olimpija Ljubljana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff