Olimpija Ljubljana 1–3 Koper: Result & Stats

Olimpija Ljubljana

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Koper

8/17/2025

1. SNL · Round 5Stadion Stožice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Olimpija Ljubljana44%

×Draw25%

Koper31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olimpija LjubljanaExpected goals in this matchKoper

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.25

Olimpija Ljubljana

1.55

Koper

1.25

Olimpija Ljubljana creates 24% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 109 away

1.80

creates per match

1.51

0.98

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Olimpija Ljubljana

1.80

Koper

1.51

allows per match

Olimpija Ljubljana

0.98

Koper

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olimpija Ljubljana+0.00on par

Koper+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpija Ljubljana ↓

Koper →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Olimpija Ljubljana or draw

69%

Olimpija Ljubljana or Koper

75%

Draw or Koper

56%

Winning margin

Olimpija Ljubljana wins by 2+

22%

Koper wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Olimpija Ljubljana 1+ goals

79%

Olimpija Ljubljana 2+ goals

46%

Olimpija Ljubljana 3+ goals

20%

Koper 1+ goals

71%

Koper 2+ goals

36%

Koper 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Olimpija Ljubljana (draw refunded)

59%

Koper (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpija Ljubljana at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.98 · 125 matches

Koper away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.30 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpija Ljubljana attack 1.80 + Koper defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.55

Koper attack 1.51 + Olimpija Ljubljana defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Olimpija Ljubljana scores more

44%

level

25%

Koper scores more

31%

Olimpija Ljubljana at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Olimpija Ljubljana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff