Olimpija Ljubljana 8–0 Jarun: Result & Stats

Olimpija Ljubljana

8 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Jarun

1/13/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Kodeljevo umetna trava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Olimpija Ljubljana59%

×Draw19%

Jarun22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olimpija LjubljanaExpected goals in this matchJarun

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

1.44

Olimpija Ljubljana

2.46

Jarun

1.44

Olimpija Ljubljana creates 71% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

1.91

creates per match

1.60

1.27

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Olimpija Ljubljana

1.91

Jarun

1.60

allows per match

Olimpija Ljubljana

1.27

Jarun

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olimpija Ljubljana+0.00on par

Jarun+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpija Ljubljana ↓

Jarun →

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Olimpija Ljubljana or draw

78%

Olimpija Ljubljana or Jarun

81%

Draw or Jarun

41%

Winning margin

Olimpija Ljubljana wins by 2+

38%

Jarun wins by 2+

Team goals

Olimpija Ljubljana 1+ goals

91%

Olimpija Ljubljana 2+ goals

70%

Olimpija Ljubljana 3+ goals

44%

Jarun 1+ goals

76%

Jarun 2+ goals

42%

Jarun 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Olimpija Ljubljana (draw refunded)

73%

Jarun (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Olimpija Ljubljana at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Jarun away — creates 1.60, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Olimpija Ljubljana attack 1.91 + Jarun defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.46

Jarun attack 1.60 + Olimpija Ljubljana defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 59%?"

Olimpija Ljubljana scores more

59%

level

19%

Jarun scores more

22%

Olimpija Ljubljana at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Olimpija Ljubljana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff