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Olimpija Ljubljana vs Cercle Brugge — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Olimpija Ljubljana
Olimpija Ljubljana
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Cercle Brugge
Cercle Brugge
12/12/2024UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 5Stadion Stožice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Olimpija Ljubljana37%
×Draw24%
Cercle Brugge39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpija Ljubljana
1.52
Cercle Brugge
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 5 away

creates per match

Olimpija Ljubljana
1.44
Cercle Brugge
2.20

allows per match

Olimpija Ljubljana
0.94
Cercle Brugge
1.60

finishing

Olimpija Ljubljana+0.00on par
Cercle Brugge+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpija Ljubljana ↓

Cercle Brugge →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Olimpija Ljubljana or draw
61%
Olimpija Ljubljana or Cercle Brugge
76%
Draw or Cercle Brugge
63%

Winning margin

Olimpija Ljubljana wins by 2+
18%
Cercle Brugge wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Olimpija Ljubljana 1+ goals
78%
Olimpija Ljubljana 2+ goals
45%
Olimpija Ljubljana 3+ goals
20%
Cercle Brugge 1+ goals
79%
Cercle Brugge 2+ goals
46%
Cercle Brugge 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Olimpija Ljubljana (draw refunded)
49%
Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpija Ljubljana at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.94 · 16 matches

Cercle Brugge away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpija Ljubljana attack 1.44 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.52

Cercle Brugge attack 2.20 + Olimpija Ljubljana defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Olimpija Ljubljana scores more
37%
level
24%
Cercle Brugge scores more
39%

Cercle Brugge at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cercle Brugge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: Olimpija Ljubljana 1–4 Cercle Brugge

Cercle Brugge beat Olimpija Ljubljana 4-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on December 12, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Stožice in Ljubljana.