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Olímpico Totana vs UCAM Murcia II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Olímpico Totana
Olímpico Totana
CANC
00:00
UCAM Murcia II
UCAM Murcia II
4/26/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 35Estadio Juan Cayuela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Olímpico Totana35%
×Draw28%
UCAM Murcia II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olímpico Totana
1.17
UCAM Murcia II
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 110 away

creates per match

Olímpico Totana
1.20
UCAM Murcia II
1.33

allows per match

Olímpico Totana
1.09
UCAM Murcia II
1.14

finishing

Olímpico Totana+0.00on par
UCAM Murcia II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olímpico Totana ↓

UCAM Murcia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Olímpico Totana or draw
63%
Olímpico Totana or UCAM Murcia II
72%
Draw or UCAM Murcia II
65%

Winning margin

Olímpico Totana wins by 2+
15%
UCAM Murcia II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Olímpico Totana 1+ goals
69%
Olímpico Totana 2+ goals
33%
Olímpico Totana 3+ goals
11%
UCAM Murcia II 1+ goals
70%
UCAM Murcia II 2+ goals
34%
UCAM Murcia II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Olímpico Totana (draw refunded)
49%
UCAM Murcia II (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olímpico Totana at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.09 · 46 matches

UCAM Murcia II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.14 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olímpico Totana attack 1.20 + UCAM Murcia II defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.17

UCAM Murcia II attack 1.33 + Olímpico Totana defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Olímpico Totana scores more
35%
level
28%
UCAM Murcia II scores more
37%

UCAM Murcia II at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "UCAM Murcia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Olímpico Totana host UCAM Murcia II

April 26, 2020: Olímpico Totana take on UCAM Murcia II in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Olímpico Totana host UCAM Murcia II at Estadio Juan Cayuela.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.