Olímpico Totana 4–0 Plus Ultra: Result & Stats

Olímpico Totana

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Plus Ultra

12/16/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 6Estadio Juan Cayuela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Olímpico Totana59%

×Draw22%

Plus Ultra18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olímpico TotanaExpected goals in this matchPlus Ultra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

0.94

Olímpico Totana

1.88

Plus Ultra

0.94

Olímpico Totana creates 100% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 63 away

1.20

creates per match

0.79

1.09

allows per match

2.56

creates per match

Olímpico Totana

1.20

Plus Ultra

0.79

allows per match

Olímpico Totana

1.09

Plus Ultra

2.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olímpico Totana+0.00on par

Plus Ultra+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olímpico Totana ↓

Plus Ultra →

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Olímpico Totana or draw

82%

Olímpico Totana or Plus Ultra

78%

Draw or Plus Ultra

41%

Winning margin

Olímpico Totana wins by 2+

35%

Plus Ultra wins by 2+

Team goals

Olímpico Totana 1+ goals

85%

Olímpico Totana 2+ goals

56%

Olímpico Totana 3+ goals

29%

Plus Ultra 1+ goals

61%

Plus Ultra 2+ goals

24%

Plus Ultra 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Olímpico Totana (draw refunded)

76%

Plus Ultra (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Olímpico Totana at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.09 · 46 matches

Plus Ultra away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.56 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Olímpico Totana attack 1.20 + Plus Ultra defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 1.88

Plus Ultra attack 0.79 + Olímpico Totana defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 59%?"

Olímpico Totana scores more

59%

level

22%

Plus Ultra scores more

18%

Olímpico Totana at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Olímpico Totana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Olímpico Totana 4–0 Plus Ultra

Olímpico Totana beat Plus Ultra 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on December 16, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Cayuela in Totana.

Olímpico Totana vs Plus Ultra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Olímpico Totana 4–0 Plus Ultra