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Olímpico Totana vs Los Garres — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Olímpico Totana
Olímpico Totana
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Los Garres
Los Garres
11/3/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 11Estadio Juan Cayuela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Olímpico Totana45%
×Draw27%
Los Garres28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olímpico Totana
1.39
Los Garres
1.04

Olímpico Totana creates 34% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 44 away

creates per match

Olímpico Totana
1.20
Los Garres
0.98

allows per match

Olímpico Totana
1.09
Los Garres
1.57

finishing

Olímpico Totana+0.00on par
Los Garres+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olímpico Totana ↓

Los Garres →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Olímpico Totana or draw
72%
Olímpico Totana or Los Garres
73%
Draw or Los Garres
55%

Winning margin

Olímpico Totana wins by 2+
21%
Los Garres wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Olímpico Totana 1+ goals
75%
Olímpico Totana 2+ goals
40%
Olímpico Totana 3+ goals
16%
Los Garres 1+ goals
65%
Los Garres 2+ goals
28%
Los Garres 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Olímpico Totana (draw refunded)
61%
Los Garres (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olímpico Totana at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.09 · 46 matches

Los Garres away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.57 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olímpico Totana attack 1.20 + Los Garres defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.39

Los Garres attack 0.98 + Olímpico Totana defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Olímpico Totana scores more
45%
level
27%
Los Garres scores more
28%

Olímpico Totana at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Olímpico Totana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olímpico Totana vs Los Garres

Los Garres beat Olímpico Totana 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on November 3, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Cayuela in Totana.