Olímpico Totana 0–1 Huércal Overa: Result & Stats

Olímpico Totana

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Huércal Overa

6/6/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 2nd Phase - 9Estadio Juan Cayuela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Olímpico Totana49%

×Draw27%

Huércal Overa25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olímpico TotanaExpected goals in this matchHuércal Overa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.94

Olímpico Totana

1.44

Huércal Overa

0.94

Olímpico Totana creates 53% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 47 away

1.20

creates per match

0.79

1.09

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Olímpico Totana

1.20

Huércal Overa

0.79

allows per match

Olímpico Totana

1.09

Huércal Overa

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olímpico Totana+0.00on par

Huércal Overa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olímpico Totana ↓

Huércal Overa →

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Olímpico Totana or draw

75%

Olímpico Totana or Huércal Overa

73%

Draw or Huércal Overa

51%

Winning margin

Olímpico Totana wins by 2+

24%

Huércal Overa wins by 2+

Team goals

Olímpico Totana 1+ goals

76%

Olímpico Totana 2+ goals

42%

Olímpico Totana 3+ goals

18%

Huércal Overa 1+ goals

61%

Huércal Overa 2+ goals

24%

Huércal Overa 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Olímpico Totana (draw refunded)

66%

Huércal Overa (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Olímpico Totana at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.09 · 46 matches

Huércal Overa away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.68 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Olímpico Totana attack 1.20 + Huércal Overa defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.44

Huércal Overa attack 0.79 + Olímpico Totana defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Olímpico Totana scores more

49%

level

27%

Huércal Overa scores more

25%

Olímpico Totana at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Olímpico Totana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Olímpico Totana 0–1 Huércal Overa

Huércal Overa beat Olímpico Totana 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on June 6, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Cayuela in Totana.

Olímpico Totana vs Huércal Overa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Olímpico Totana 0–1 Huércal Overa