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Olímpico Totana vs EDMF Churra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Olímpico Totana
Olímpico Totana
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
EDMF Churra
EDMF Churra
9/22/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 5Estadio Juan Cayuela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Olímpico Totana50%
×Draw25%
EDMF Churra25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olímpico Totana
1.56
EDMF Churra
1.02

Olímpico Totana creates 53% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 28 away

creates per match

Olímpico Totana
1.20
EDMF Churra
0.96

allows per match

Olímpico Totana
1.09
EDMF Churra
1.93

finishing

Olímpico Totana+0.00on par
EDMF Churra+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olímpico Totana ↓

EDMF Churra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Olímpico Totana or draw
75%
Olímpico Totana or EDMF Churra
75%
Draw or EDMF Churra
50%

Winning margin

Olímpico Totana wins by 2+
26%
EDMF Churra wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Olímpico Totana 1+ goals
79%
Olímpico Totana 2+ goals
46%
Olímpico Totana 3+ goals
21%
EDMF Churra 1+ goals
64%
EDMF Churra 2+ goals
27%
EDMF Churra 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Olímpico Totana (draw refunded)
67%
EDMF Churra (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olímpico Totana at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.09 · 46 matches

EDMF Churra away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.93 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olímpico Totana attack 1.20 + EDMF Churra defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.56

EDMF Churra attack 0.96 + Olímpico Totana defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Olímpico Totana scores more
50%
level
25%
EDMF Churra scores more
25%

Olímpico Totana at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Olímpico Totana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Olímpico Totana 2 – 0 EDMF Churra

Olímpico Totana beat EDMF Churra 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on September 22, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Cayuela in Totana.