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Olímpico Totana vs CAP Ciudad de Murcia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Olímpico Totana
Olímpico Totana
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
CAP Ciudad de Murcia
CAP Ciudad de Murcia
4/25/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 2nd Phase - 3Estadio Juan Cayuela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Olímpico Totana45%
×Draw28%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olímpico Totana
1.32
CAP Ciudad de Murcia
0.97

Olímpico Totana creates 36% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 78 away

creates per match

Olímpico Totana
1.20
CAP Ciudad de Murcia
0.85

allows per match

Olímpico Totana
1.09
CAP Ciudad de Murcia
1.45

finishing

Olímpico Totana+0.00on par
CAP Ciudad de Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olímpico Totana ↓

CAP Ciudad de Murcia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Olímpico Totana or draw
73%
Olímpico Totana or CAP Ciudad de Murcia
72%
Draw or CAP Ciudad de Murcia
55%

Winning margin

Olímpico Totana wins by 2+
21%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Olímpico Totana 1+ goals
73%
Olímpico Totana 2+ goals
38%
Olímpico Totana 3+ goals
15%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1+ goals
62%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2+ goals
25%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Olímpico Totana (draw refunded)
62%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olímpico Totana at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.09 · 46 matches

CAP Ciudad de Murcia away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.45 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olímpico Totana attack 1.20 + CAP Ciudad de Murcia defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.32

CAP Ciudad de Murcia attack 0.85 + Olímpico Totana defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Olímpico Totana scores more
45%
level
28%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia scores more
27%

Olímpico Totana at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Olímpico Totana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Olímpico Totana 1–2 CAP Ciudad de Murcia

CAP Ciudad de Murcia beat Olímpico Totana 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on April 25, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Cayuela in Totana.