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Olímpico Totana vs Bala Azul — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Olímpico Totana
Olímpico Totana
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bala Azul
Bala Azul
12/13/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 14Estadio Juan Cayuela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Olímpico Totana42%
×Draw28%
Bala Azul30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olímpico Totana
1.25
Bala Azul
1.00

Olímpico Totana creates 25% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 51 away

creates per match

Olímpico Totana
1.20
Bala Azul
0.90

allows per match

Olímpico Totana
1.09
Bala Azul
1.31

finishing

Olímpico Totana+0.00on par
Bala Azul+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olímpico Totana ↓

Bala Azul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Olímpico Totana or draw
70%
Olímpico Totana or Bala Azul
72%
Draw or Bala Azul
58%

Winning margin

Olímpico Totana wins by 2+
19%
Bala Azul wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Olímpico Totana 1+ goals
71%
Olímpico Totana 2+ goals
36%
Olímpico Totana 3+ goals
13%
Bala Azul 1+ goals
63%
Bala Azul 2+ goals
26%
Bala Azul 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Olímpico Totana (draw refunded)
59%
Bala Azul (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olímpico Totana at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.09 · 46 matches

Bala Azul away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.31 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olímpico Totana attack 1.20 + Bala Azul defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Bala Azul attack 0.90 + Olímpico Totana defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Olímpico Totana scores more
42%
level
28%
Bala Azul scores more
30%

Olímpico Totana at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Olímpico Totana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Olímpico Totana 2 – 0 Bala Azul

Olímpico Totana beat Bala Azul 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on December 13, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Cayuela in Totana.