Olímpico Totana vs Águilas: Preview & Prediction

Olímpico Totana

CANC

00:00

Águilas

4/19/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 34Estadio Juan Cayuela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Olímpico Totana31%

×Draw30%

Águilas39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olímpico TotanaExpected goals in this matchÁguilas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

1.10

Olímpico Totana

0.94

Águilas

1.10

Águilas creates 17% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 42 away

1.20

creates per match

1.10

1.09

allows per match

0.69

creates per match

Olímpico Totana

1.20

Águilas

1.10

allows per match

Olímpico Totana

1.09

Águilas

0.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olímpico Totana+0.00on par

Águilas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olímpico Totana ↓

Águilas →

0–013%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Olímpico Totana or draw

61%

Olímpico Totana or Águilas

70%

Draw or Águilas

69%

Winning margin

Olímpico Totana wins by 2+

11%

Águilas wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Olímpico Totana 1+ goals

61%

Olímpico Totana 2+ goals

24%

Olímpico Totana 3+ goals

Águilas 1+ goals

67%

Águilas 2+ goals

30%

Águilas 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Olímpico Totana (draw refunded)

44%

Águilas (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Olímpico Totana at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.09 · 46 matches

Águilas away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.69 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Olímpico Totana attack 1.20 + Águilas defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.94

Águilas attack 1.10 + Olímpico Totana defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Olímpico Totana scores more

31%

level

30%

Águilas scores more

39%

Águilas at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Águilas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Olímpico Totana vs Águilas — Match Preview

Olímpico Totana face Águilas on April 19, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Olímpico Totana host Águilas at Estadio Juan Cayuela.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Olímpico Totana vs Águilas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Olímpico Totana vs Águilas — Match Preview