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Olímpico do Montijo vs Fabril Barreiro — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G 2020

Olímpico do Montijo
Olímpico do Montijo
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Fabril Barreiro
Fabril Barreiro
3/21/2021Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group GCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G · Group G - 17Campo da Liberdade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Olímpico do Montijo33%
×Draw26%
Fabril Barreiro41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olímpico do Montijo
1.23
Fabril Barreiro
1.41

Fabril Barreiro creates 15% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Olímpico do Montijo
0.91
Fabril Barreiro
0.91

allows per match

Olímpico do Montijo
1.91
Fabril Barreiro
1.55

finishing

Olímpico do Montijo+0.00on par
Fabril Barreiro+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olímpico do Montijo ↓

Fabril Barreiro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Olímpico do Montijo or draw
59%
Olímpico do Montijo or Fabril Barreiro
74%
Draw or Fabril Barreiro
67%

Winning margin

Olímpico do Montijo wins by 2+
14%
Fabril Barreiro wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Olímpico do Montijo 1+ goals
71%
Olímpico do Montijo 2+ goals
35%
Olímpico do Montijo 3+ goals
13%
Fabril Barreiro 1+ goals
76%
Fabril Barreiro 2+ goals
41%
Fabril Barreiro 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Olímpico do Montijo (draw refunded)
44%
Fabril Barreiro (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olímpico do Montijo at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

Fabril Barreiro away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olímpico do Montijo attack 0.91 + Fabril Barreiro defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.23

Fabril Barreiro attack 0.91 + Olímpico do Montijo defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Olímpico do Montijo scores more
33%
level
26%
Fabril Barreiro scores more
41%

Fabril Barreiro at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Fabril Barreiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olímpico do Montijo vs Fabril Barreiro

Fabril Barreiro beat Olímpico do Montijo 2-1 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G on March 21, 2021.

The match was played at Campo da Liberdade in Montijo.