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Olímpico do Montijo vs Estrela — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G 2020

Olímpico do Montijo
Olímpico do Montijo
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Estrela
Estrela
3/7/2021Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group GCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G · Group G - 19Campo da Liberdade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Olímpico do Montijo20%
×Draw26%
Estrela54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olímpico do Montijo
0.82
Estrela
1.54

Estrela creates 88% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Olímpico do Montijo
0.91
Estrela
1.18

allows per match

Olímpico do Montijo
1.91
Estrela
0.73

finishing

Olímpico do Montijo+0.00on par
Estrela+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olímpico do Montijo ↓

Estrela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–115%
0–211%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Olímpico do Montijo or draw
46%
Olímpico do Montijo or Estrela
74%
Draw or Estrela
80%

Winning margin

Olímpico do Montijo wins by 2+
6%
Estrela wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Olímpico do Montijo 1+ goals
56%
Olímpico do Montijo 2+ goals
20%
Olímpico do Montijo 3+ goals
5%
Estrela 1+ goals
79%
Estrela 2+ goals
45%
Estrela 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Olímpico do Montijo (draw refunded)
27%
Estrela (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olímpico do Montijo at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

Estrela away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olímpico do Montijo attack 0.91 + Estrela defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.82

Estrela attack 1.18 + Olímpico do Montijo defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Olímpico do Montijo scores more
20%
level
26%
Estrela scores more
54%

Estrela at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Estrela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olímpico do Montijo vs Estrela

Estrela beat Olímpico do Montijo 3-1 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G on March 7, 2021.

The match was played at Campo da Liberdade in Montijo.