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Olímpic Xàtiva vs Villarreal III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Olímpic Xàtiva
Olímpic Xàtiva
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Villarreal III
Villarreal III
3/27/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 32Estadio La Murta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Olímpic Xàtiva38%
×Draw27%
Villarreal III35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olímpic Xàtiva
1.27
Villarreal III
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 112 away

creates per match

Olímpic Xàtiva
1.30
Villarreal III
1.38

allows per match

Olímpic Xàtiva
1.02
Villarreal III
1.23

finishing

Olímpic Xàtiva+0.00on par
Villarreal III+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olímpic Xàtiva ↓

Villarreal III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Olímpic Xàtiva or draw
65%
Olímpic Xàtiva or Villarreal III
73%
Draw or Villarreal III
62%

Winning margin

Olímpic Xàtiva wins by 2+
17%
Villarreal III wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Olímpic Xàtiva 1+ goals
72%
Olímpic Xàtiva 2+ goals
36%
Olímpic Xàtiva 3+ goals
14%
Villarreal III 1+ goals
70%
Villarreal III 2+ goals
34%
Villarreal III 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Olímpic Xàtiva (draw refunded)
52%
Villarreal III (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olímpic Xàtiva at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.02 · 44 matches

Villarreal III away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.23 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olímpic Xàtiva attack 1.30 + Villarreal III defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.27

Villarreal III attack 1.38 + Olímpic Xàtiva defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Olímpic Xàtiva scores more
38%
level
27%
Villarreal III scores more
35%

Olímpic Xàtiva at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Olímpic Xàtiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olímpic Xàtiva vs Villarreal III

Olímpic Xàtiva and Villarreal III drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on March 27, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio La Murta in Xàtiva.