Olímpic Xàtiva vs Saguntino: Preview & Prediction

Olímpic Xàtiva

CANC

00:00

Saguntino

4/5/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 32Estadio La Murta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Olímpic Xàtiva38%

×Draw28%

Saguntino33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olímpic XàtivaExpected goals in this matchSaguntino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.10

Olímpic Xàtiva

1.20

Saguntino

1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 80 away

1.30

creates per match

1.18

1.02

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Olímpic Xàtiva

1.30

Saguntino

1.18

allows per match

Olímpic Xàtiva

1.02

Saguntino

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olímpic Xàtiva+0.00on par

Saguntino+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olímpic Xàtiva ↓

Saguntino →

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Olímpic Xàtiva or draw

67%

Olímpic Xàtiva or Saguntino

72%

Draw or Saguntino

62%

Winning margin

Olímpic Xàtiva wins by 2+

16%

Saguntino wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Olímpic Xàtiva 1+ goals

70%

Olímpic Xàtiva 2+ goals

34%

Olímpic Xàtiva 3+ goals

12%

Saguntino 1+ goals

67%

Saguntino 2+ goals

30%

Saguntino 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Olímpic Xàtiva (draw refunded)

53%

Saguntino (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Olímpic Xàtiva at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.02 · 44 matches

Saguntino away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Olímpic Xàtiva attack 1.30 + Saguntino defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.20

Saguntino attack 1.18 + Olímpic Xàtiva defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Olímpic Xàtiva scores more

38%

level

28%

Saguntino scores more

33%

Olímpic Xàtiva at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Olímpic Xàtiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Olímpic Xàtiva vs Saguntino — Match Preview

Olímpic Xàtiva face Saguntino on April 5, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Olímpic Xàtiva host Saguntino at Estadio La Murta.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Olímpic Xàtiva vs Saguntino — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Olímpic Xàtiva vs Saguntino — Match Preview