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Olímpic Xàtiva vs Jove Español — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Olímpic Xàtiva
Olímpic Xàtiva
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Jove Español
Jove Español
9/12/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 2Estadio La Murta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Olímpic Xàtiva43%
×Draw29%
Jove Español28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olímpic Xàtiva
1.25
Jove Español
0.94

Olímpic Xàtiva creates 33% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 110 away

creates per match

Olímpic Xàtiva
1.30
Jove Español
0.86

allows per match

Olímpic Xàtiva
1.02
Jove Español
1.21

finishing

Olímpic Xàtiva+0.00on par
Jove Español+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olímpic Xàtiva ↓

Jove Español →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Olímpic Xàtiva or draw
72%
Olímpic Xàtiva or Jove Español
71%
Draw or Jove Español
57%

Winning margin

Olímpic Xàtiva wins by 2+
19%
Jove Español wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Olímpic Xàtiva 1+ goals
71%
Olímpic Xàtiva 2+ goals
36%
Olímpic Xàtiva 3+ goals
13%
Jove Español 1+ goals
61%
Jove Español 2+ goals
24%
Jove Español 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Olímpic Xàtiva (draw refunded)
61%
Jove Español (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olímpic Xàtiva at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.02 · 44 matches

Jove Español away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.21 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olímpic Xàtiva attack 1.30 + Jove Español defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.25

Jove Español attack 0.86 + Olímpic Xàtiva defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Olímpic Xàtiva scores more
43%
level
29%
Jove Español scores more
28%

Olímpic Xàtiva at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Olímpic Xàtiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Olímpic Xàtiva 1 – 0 Jove Español

Olímpic Xàtiva beat Jove Español 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on September 12, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio La Murta in Xàtiva.