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Olímpic Xàtiva vs Benigànim — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Olímpic Xàtiva
Olímpic Xàtiva
CANC
00:00
Benigànim
Benigànim
3/22/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 30Estadio La Murta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Olímpic Xàtiva63%
×Draw21%
Benigànim16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olímpic Xàtiva
1.98
Benigànim
0.86

Olímpic Xàtiva creates 130% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 44 away

creates per match

Olímpic Xàtiva
1.30
Benigànim
0.70

allows per match

Olímpic Xàtiva
1.02
Benigànim
2.66

finishing

Olímpic Xàtiva+0.00on par
Benigànim+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olímpic Xàtiva ↓

Benigànim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Olímpic Xàtiva or draw
84%
Olímpic Xàtiva or Benigànim
79%
Draw or Benigànim
37%

Winning margin

Olímpic Xàtiva wins by 2+
39%
Benigànim wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Olímpic Xàtiva 1+ goals
86%
Olímpic Xàtiva 2+ goals
59%
Olímpic Xàtiva 3+ goals
31%
Benigànim 1+ goals
58%
Benigànim 2+ goals
21%
Benigànim 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Olímpic Xàtiva (draw refunded)
80%
Benigànim (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olímpic Xàtiva at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.02 · 44 matches

Benigànim away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.66 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olímpic Xàtiva attack 1.30 + Benigànim defence 2.66 → ÷2 → 1.98

Benigànim attack 0.70 + Olímpic Xàtiva defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Olímpic Xàtiva scores more
63%
level
21%
Benigànim scores more
16%

Olímpic Xàtiva at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Olímpic Xàtiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Olímpic Xàtiva vs Benigànim — Match Preview

Olímpic Xàtiva face Benigànim on March 22, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Olímpic Xàtiva host Benigànim at Estadio La Murta.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.