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Olímpic Xàtiva vs Alcoyano — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Olímpic Xàtiva
Olímpic Xàtiva
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Alcoyano
Alcoyano
11/10/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 12Estadio La Murta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Olímpic Xàtiva27%
×Draw28%
Alcoyano45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olímpic Xàtiva
0.97
Alcoyano
1.33

Alcoyano creates 37% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 14 away

creates per match

Olímpic Xàtiva
1.30
Alcoyano
1.64

allows per match

Olímpic Xàtiva
1.02
Alcoyano
0.64

finishing

Olímpic Xàtiva+0.00on par
Alcoyano+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olímpic Xàtiva ↓

Alcoyano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Olímpic Xàtiva or draw
55%
Olímpic Xàtiva or Alcoyano
72%
Draw or Alcoyano
73%

Winning margin

Olímpic Xàtiva wins by 2+
10%
Alcoyano wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Olímpic Xàtiva 1+ goals
62%
Olímpic Xàtiva 2+ goals
25%
Olímpic Xàtiva 3+ goals
7%
Alcoyano 1+ goals
74%
Alcoyano 2+ goals
38%
Alcoyano 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Olímpic Xàtiva (draw refunded)
38%
Alcoyano (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olímpic Xàtiva at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.02 · 44 matches

Alcoyano away — creates 1.64, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olímpic Xàtiva attack 1.30 + Alcoyano defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.97

Alcoyano attack 1.64 + Olímpic Xàtiva defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Olímpic Xàtiva scores more
27%
level
28%
Alcoyano scores more
45%

Alcoyano at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Alcoyano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Olímpic Xàtiva 2 – 2 Alcoyano

Olímpic Xàtiva and Alcoyano drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on November 10, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio La Murta in Xàtiva.