Olimpia Zambrów 2–3 Sokół Ostróda: Result & Stats

Olimpia Zambrów

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Sokół Ostróda

9/10/2022

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 7Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Olimpia Zambrów45%

×Draw23%

Sokół Ostróda32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olimpia ZambrówExpected goals in this matchSokół Ostróda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.43

Olimpia Zambrów

1.73

Sokół Ostróda

1.43

Olimpia Zambrów creates 21% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 17 away

1.64

creates per match

1.12

1.74

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Olimpia Zambrów

1.64

Sokół Ostróda

1.12

allows per match

Olimpia Zambrów

1.74

Sokół Ostróda

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olimpia Zambrów+0.00on par

Sokół Ostróda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia Zambrów ↓

Sokół Ostróda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Olimpia Zambrów or draw

68%

Olimpia Zambrów or Sokół Ostróda

77%

Draw or Sokół Ostróda

55%

Winning margin

Olimpia Zambrów wins by 2+

24%

Sokół Ostróda wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Olimpia Zambrów 1+ goals

82%

Olimpia Zambrów 2+ goals

52%

Olimpia Zambrów 3+ goals

25%

Sokół Ostróda 1+ goals

76%

Sokół Ostróda 2+ goals

42%

Sokół Ostróda 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Olimpia Zambrów (draw refunded)

58%

Sokół Ostróda (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia Zambrów at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.74 · 53 matches

Sokół Ostróda away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia Zambrów attack 1.64 + Sokół Ostróda defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.73

Sokół Ostróda attack 1.12 + Olimpia Zambrów defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Olimpia Zambrów scores more

45%

level

23%

Sokół Ostróda scores more

32%

Olimpia Zambrów at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Olimpia Zambrów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff