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Olimpia Zambrów vs Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Olimpia Zambrów
Olimpia Zambrów
FT
4 – 1
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
8/28/2020III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 4Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Olimpia Zambrów53%
×Draw22%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpia Zambrów
1.93
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
1.26

Olimpia Zambrów creates 53% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 18 away

creates per match

Olimpia Zambrów
1.64
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
0.78

allows per match

Olimpia Zambrów
1.74
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
2.22

finishing

Olimpia Zambrów+0.00on par
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia Zambrów ↓

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Olimpia Zambrów or draw
75%
Olimpia Zambrów or Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
78%
Draw or Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
47%

Winning margin

Olimpia Zambrów wins by 2+
30%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Olimpia Zambrów 1+ goals
85%
Olimpia Zambrów 2+ goals
57%
Olimpia Zambrów 3+ goals
30%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 1+ goals
72%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 2+ goals
36%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Olimpia Zambrów (draw refunded)
68%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia Zambrów at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.74 · 53 matches

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia Zambrów attack 1.64 + Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.93

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie attack 0.78 + Olimpia Zambrów defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Olimpia Zambrów scores more
53%
level
22%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie scores more
25%

Olimpia Zambrów at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Olimpia Zambrów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Olimpia Zambrów 4–1 Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie

Olimpia Zambrów beat Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 4-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on August 28, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Zambrów.