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Olimpia Zambrów vs Pilica Białobrzegi — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Olimpia Zambrów
Olimpia Zambrów
FT
4 – 0
Pilica Białobrzegi
Pilica Białobrzegi
5/28/2023III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 31Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Olimpia Zambrów51%
×Draw22%
Pilica Białobrzegi27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpia Zambrów
2.04
Pilica Białobrzegi
1.44

Olimpia Zambrów creates 42% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 52 away

creates per match

Olimpia Zambrów
1.64
Pilica Białobrzegi
1.13

allows per match

Olimpia Zambrów
1.74
Pilica Białobrzegi
2.44

finishing

Olimpia Zambrów+0.00on par
Pilica Białobrzegi+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia Zambrów ↓

Pilica Białobrzegi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Olimpia Zambrów or draw
73%
Olimpia Zambrów or Pilica Białobrzegi
78%
Draw or Pilica Białobrzegi
49%

Winning margin

Olimpia Zambrów wins by 2+
30%
Pilica Białobrzegi wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Olimpia Zambrów 1+ goals
87%
Olimpia Zambrów 2+ goals
60%
Olimpia Zambrów 3+ goals
33%
Pilica Białobrzegi 1+ goals
76%
Pilica Białobrzegi 2+ goals
42%
Pilica Białobrzegi 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Olimpia Zambrów (draw refunded)
65%
Pilica Białobrzegi (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia Zambrów at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.74 · 53 matches

Pilica Białobrzegi away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.44 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia Zambrów attack 1.64 + Pilica Białobrzegi defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.04

Pilica Białobrzegi attack 1.13 + Olimpia Zambrów defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Olimpia Zambrów scores more
51%
level
22%
Pilica Białobrzegi scores more
27%

Olimpia Zambrów at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Olimpia Zambrów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olimpia Zambrów vs Pilica Białobrzegi

Olimpia Zambrów beat Pilica Białobrzegi 4-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on May 28, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Zambrów.