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Olimpia Zambrów vs Jagiellonia II — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Olimpia Zambrów
Olimpia Zambrów
FT
0 – 4
Jagiellonia II
Jagiellonia II
8/17/2022III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 3Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Olimpia Zambrów39%
×Draw23%
Jagiellonia II38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpia Zambrów
1.65
Jagiellonia II
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 103 away

creates per match

Olimpia Zambrów
1.64
Jagiellonia II
1.48

allows per match

Olimpia Zambrów
1.74
Jagiellonia II
1.67

finishing

Olimpia Zambrów+0.00on par
Jagiellonia II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia Zambrów ↓

Jagiellonia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Olimpia Zambrów or draw
62%
Olimpia Zambrów or Jagiellonia II
77%
Draw or Jagiellonia II
61%

Winning margin

Olimpia Zambrów wins by 2+
20%
Jagiellonia II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Olimpia Zambrów 1+ goals
81%
Olimpia Zambrów 2+ goals
49%
Olimpia Zambrów 3+ goals
23%
Jagiellonia II 1+ goals
80%
Jagiellonia II 2+ goals
48%
Jagiellonia II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Olimpia Zambrów (draw refunded)
51%
Jagiellonia II (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia Zambrów at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.74 · 53 matches

Jagiellonia II away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.67 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia Zambrów attack 1.64 + Jagiellonia II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.65

Jagiellonia II attack 1.48 + Olimpia Zambrów defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Olimpia Zambrów scores more
39%
level
23%
Jagiellonia II scores more
38%

Olimpia Zambrów at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Olimpia Zambrów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Olimpia Zambrów 0–4 Jagiellonia II

Jagiellonia II beat Olimpia Zambrów 4-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on August 17, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Zambrów.