Olimpia Zambrów 2–1 Huragan Morąg: Result & Stats

Olimpia Zambrów

FT

2 – 1

Huragan Morąg

6/12/2021

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 34Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Olimpia Zambrów48%

×Draw22%

Huragan Morąg30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olimpia ZambrówExpected goals in this matchHuragan Morąg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.48

Olimpia Zambrów

1.93

Huragan Morąg

1.48

Olimpia Zambrów creates 30% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 18 away

1.64

creates per match

1.22

1.74

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Olimpia Zambrów

1.64

Huragan Morąg

1.22

allows per match

Olimpia Zambrów

1.74

Huragan Morąg

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olimpia Zambrów+0.00on par

Huragan Morąg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia Zambrów ↓

Huragan Morąg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Olimpia Zambrów or draw

70%

Olimpia Zambrów or Huragan Morąg

78%

Draw or Huragan Morąg

52%

Winning margin

Olimpia Zambrów wins by 2+

27%

Huragan Morąg wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Olimpia Zambrów 1+ goals

85%

Olimpia Zambrów 2+ goals

57%

Olimpia Zambrów 3+ goals

30%

Huragan Morąg 1+ goals

77%

Huragan Morąg 2+ goals

43%

Huragan Morąg 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Olimpia Zambrów (draw refunded)

62%

Huragan Morąg (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia Zambrów at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.74 · 53 matches

Huragan Morąg away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia Zambrów attack 1.64 + Huragan Morąg defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.93

Huragan Morąg attack 1.22 + Olimpia Zambrów defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Olimpia Zambrów scores more

48%

level

22%

Huragan Morąg scores more

30%

Olimpia Zambrów at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Olimpia Zambrów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff