Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Olimpia Zambrów vs Broń Radom — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Olimpia Zambrów
Olimpia Zambrów
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Broń Radom
Broń Radom
9/24/2022III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 9Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Olimpia Zambrów45%
×Draw23%
Broń Radom32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpia Zambrów
1.75
Broń Radom
1.46

Olimpia Zambrów creates 20% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 103 away

creates per match

Olimpia Zambrów
1.64
Broń Radom
1.17

allows per match

Olimpia Zambrów
1.74
Broń Radom
1.87

finishing

Olimpia Zambrów+0.00on par
Broń Radom+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia Zambrów ↓

Broń Radom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Olimpia Zambrów or draw
68%
Olimpia Zambrów or Broń Radom
77%
Draw or Broń Radom
55%

Winning margin

Olimpia Zambrów wins by 2+
24%
Broń Radom wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Olimpia Zambrów 1+ goals
83%
Olimpia Zambrów 2+ goals
52%
Olimpia Zambrów 3+ goals
25%
Broń Radom 1+ goals
77%
Broń Radom 2+ goals
43%
Broń Radom 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Olimpia Zambrów (draw refunded)
58%
Broń Radom (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia Zambrów at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.74 · 53 matches

Broń Radom away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.87 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia Zambrów attack 1.64 + Broń Radom defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.75

Broń Radom attack 1.17 + Olimpia Zambrów defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Olimpia Zambrów scores more
45%
level
23%
Broń Radom scores more
32%

Olimpia Zambrów at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Olimpia Zambrów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Olimpia Zambrów 0–0 Broń Radom

Olimpia Zambrów and Broń Radom drew 0-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on September 24, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Zambrów.