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Olimpia vs SOL DE America — Division Profesional - Apertura 2018

Olimpia
Olimpia
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
SOL DE America
SOL DE America
5/9/2021Division Profesional - AperturaDivision Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 15Estadio Manuel Ferreira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Olimpia56%
×Draw22%
SOL DE America22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpia
1.95
SOL DE America
1.13

Olimpia creates 73% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 64 away

creates per match

Olimpia
1.99
SOL DE America
1.20

allows per match

Olimpia
1.05
SOL DE America
1.91

finishing

Olimpia+0.00on par
SOL DE America+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia ↓

SOL DE America →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Olimpia or draw
78%
Olimpia or SOL DE America
78%
Draw or SOL DE America
44%

Winning margin

Olimpia wins by 2+
33%
SOL DE America wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Olimpia 1+ goals
86%
Olimpia 2+ goals
58%
Olimpia 3+ goals
31%
SOL DE America 1+ goals
68%
SOL DE America 2+ goals
31%
SOL DE America 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Olimpia (draw refunded)
72%
SOL DE America (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia at home — creates 1.99, concedes 1.05 · 96 matches

SOL DE America away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.91 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia attack 1.99 + SOL DE America defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.95

SOL DE America attack 1.20 + Olimpia defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Olimpia scores more
56%
level
22%
SOL DE America scores more
22%

Olimpia at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Olimpia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Profesional - Apertura: Olimpia 3–3 SOL DE America

Olimpia and SOL DE America drew 3-3 in Division Profesional - Apertura on May 9, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel Ferreira in Asunción.