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Olímpia vs Assisense — Paulista Série B 2026

Olímpia
Olímpia
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Assisense
Assisense
Unknown 23'
Unknown 86', 43'
5/25/2025Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Municipal Maria Teresa Breda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Olímpia26%
×Draw28%
Assisense46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olímpia
0.91
Assisense
1.33

Assisense creates 46% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

creates per match

Olímpia
0.67
Assisense
0.77

allows per match

Olímpia
1.89
Assisense
1.15

finishing

Olímpia+0.00on par
Assisense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 61Over: 3961%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 56Yes: 4456%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olímpia ↓

Assisense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Olímpia or draw
54%
Olímpia or Assisense
72%
Draw or Assisense
74%

Winning margin

Olímpia wins by 2+
9%
Assisense wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Olímpia 1+ goals
60%
Olímpia 2+ goals
23%
Olímpia 3+ goals
6%
Assisense 1+ goals
74%
Assisense 2+ goals
38%
Assisense 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Olímpia (draw refunded)
36%
Assisense (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olímpia at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

Assisense away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olímpia attack 0.67 + Assisense defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.91

Assisense attack 0.77 + Olímpia defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Olímpia scores more
26%
level
28%
Assisense scores more
46%

Assisense at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Assisense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
43'
74'
86'
90+4'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista Série B: Olímpia 1–2 Assisense

Assisense beat Olímpia 2-1 in Paulista Série B on May 25, 2025.

Goals: ? (23', 43', 86').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Maria Teresa Breda in Olímpia, São Paulo.