Olimpia 3–2 3 de Febrero: Result & Stats

Olimpia

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

3 de Febrero

5/20/2018

Division Profesional - Apertura · Round 18Estadio Manuel Ferreira (Asunción)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Olimpia60%

×Draw22%

3 de Febrero18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OlimpiaExpected goals in this match3 de Febrero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

0.98

Olimpia

1.95

3 de Febrero

0.98

Olimpia creates 99% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 11 away

1.99

creates per match

0.91

1.05

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Olimpia

1.99

3 de Febrero

0.91

allows per match

Olimpia

1.05

3 de Febrero

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olimpia+0.00on par

3 de Febrero+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia ↓

3 de Febrero →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Olimpia or draw

82%

Olimpia or 3 de Febrero

78%

Draw or 3 de Febrero

40%

Winning margin

Olimpia wins by 2+

36%

3 de Febrero wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Olimpia 1+ goals

86%

Olimpia 2+ goals

58%

Olimpia 3+ goals

31%

3 de Febrero 1+ goals

62%

3 de Febrero 2+ goals

26%

3 de Febrero 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Olimpia (draw refunded)

76%

3 de Febrero (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia at home — creates 1.99, concedes 1.05 · 96 matches

3 de Febrero away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia attack 1.99 + 3 de Febrero defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.95

3 de Febrero attack 0.91 + Olimpia defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Olimpia scores more

60%

level

22%

3 de Febrero scores more

18%

Olimpia at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Olimpia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff