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Olimpia U20 vs Tanabi SP U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Olimpia U20
Olimpia U20
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Tanabi SP U20
Tanabi SP U20
Unknown 90+3', 79', 9'
Unknown 58', 45+3'
4/19/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Municipal Maria Teresa Breda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Olimpia U2035%
×Draw23%
Tanabi SP U2041%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpia U20
1.54
Tanabi SP U20
1.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 16 away

creates per match

Olimpia U20
1.20
Tanabi SP U20
1.56

allows per match

Olimpia U20
1.80
Tanabi SP U20
1.88

finishing

Olimpia U20+0.00on par
Tanabi SP U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 62Under: 3862%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 64No: 3664%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia U20 ↓

Tanabi SP U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Olimpia U20 or draw
59%
Olimpia U20 or Tanabi SP U20
77%
Draw or Tanabi SP U20
65%

Winning margin

Olimpia U20 wins by 2+
17%
Tanabi SP U20 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Olimpia U20 1+ goals
79%
Olimpia U20 2+ goals
45%
Olimpia U20 3+ goals
20%
Tanabi SP U20 1+ goals
81%
Tanabi SP U20 2+ goals
50%
Tanabi SP U20 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Olimpia U20 (draw refunded)
46%
Tanabi SP U20 (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia U20 at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Tanabi SP U20 away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia U20 attack 1.20 + Tanabi SP U20 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.54

Tanabi SP U20 attack 1.56 + Olimpia U20 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Olimpia U20 scores more
35%
level
23%
Tanabi SP U20 scores more
41%

Tanabi SP U20 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tanabi SP U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
45+3'
58'
79'
90+3'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Olimpia U20 3–2 Tanabi SP U20

Olimpia U20 beat Tanabi SP U20 3-2 in Paulista - U20 on April 19, 2024.

Goals: ? (9', 45+3', 58', 79', 90+3').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Maria Teresa Breda in Olímpia, São Paulo.