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Olimpia U20 vs Mirassol U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Olimpia U20
Olimpia U20
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
Mirassol U20
Mirassol U20
H. Coelho de Lima 90'
Fabricio Lima 74', 50'
J. Carlos 52'
6/7/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 9Estádio Municipal Maria Teresa Breda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Olimpia U2029%
×Draw23%
Mirassol U2048%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpia U20
1.38
Mirassol U20
1.85

Mirassol U20 creates 34% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 22 away

creates per match

Olimpia U20
1.20
Mirassol U20
1.91

allows per match

Olimpia U20
1.80
Mirassol U20
1.55

finishing

Olimpia U20+0.00on par
Mirassol U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 62Under: 3862%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 63No: 3763%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia U20 ↓

Mirassol U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Olimpia U20 or draw
52%
Olimpia U20 or Mirassol U20
77%
Draw or Mirassol U20
71%

Winning margin

Olimpia U20 wins by 2+
13%
Mirassol U20 wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Olimpia U20 1+ goals
75%
Olimpia U20 2+ goals
40%
Olimpia U20 3+ goals
16%
Mirassol U20 1+ goals
84%
Mirassol U20 2+ goals
55%
Mirassol U20 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Olimpia U20 (draw refunded)
37%
Mirassol U20 (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia U20 at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Mirassol U20 away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.55 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia U20 attack 1.20 + Mirassol U20 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.38

Mirassol U20 attack 1.91 + Olimpia U20 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Olimpia U20 scores more
29%
level
23%
Mirassol U20 scores more
48%

Mirassol U20 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Mirassol U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'
Fabricio Lima
52'
J. Carlos
74'
Fabricio Lima
90'
H. Coelho de Lima

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olimpia U20 vs Mirassol U20

Mirassol U20 beat Olimpia U20 4-0 in Paulista - U20 on June 7, 2024.

Goals: Fabricio Lima (50', 74'), J. Carlos (52'), H. Coelho de Lima (90').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Maria Teresa Breda in Olímpia, São Paulo.