Olimpia U20 0–0 Fernandopolis U20: Result & Stats

Olimpia U20

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Fernandopolis U20

5/31/2024

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Municipal Maria Teresa Breda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Olimpia U2059%

×Draw23%

Fernandopolis U2019%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olimpia U20Expected goals in this matchFernandopolis U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

0.90

Olimpia U20

1.80

Fernandopolis U20

0.90

Olimpia U20 creates 100% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

1.20

creates per match

0.00

1.80

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Olimpia U20

1.20

Fernandopolis U20

0.00

allows per match

Olimpia U20

1.80

Fernandopolis U20

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olimpia U20+0.00on par

Fernandopolis U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia U20 ↓

Fernandopolis U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Olimpia U20 or draw

81%

Olimpia U20 or Fernandopolis U20

77%

Draw or Fernandopolis U20

41%

Winning margin

Olimpia U20 wins by 2+

34%

Fernandopolis U20 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Olimpia U20 1+ goals

83%

Olimpia U20 2+ goals

54%

Olimpia U20 3+ goals

27%

Fernandopolis U20 1+ goals

59%

Fernandopolis U20 2+ goals

23%

Fernandopolis U20 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Olimpia U20 (draw refunded)

76%

Fernandopolis U20 (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia U20 at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Fernandopolis U20 away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia U20 attack 1.20 + Fernandopolis U20 defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.80

Fernandopolis U20 attack 0.00 + Olimpia U20 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Olimpia U20 scores more

59%

level

23%

Fernandopolis U20 scores more

19%

Olimpia U20 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Olimpia U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff