Olimpia Grudziądz 1–2 Wigry Suwałki: Result & Stats

Olimpia Grudziądz

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Wigry Suwałki

Omran Haydary 7'

A. Najemski 74', 2'

8/21/2019

I Liga · Round 5Stadion Miejski im. Bronisława Malinowskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Olimpia Grudziądz48%

×Draw25%

Wigry Suwałki28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olimpia GrudziądzExpected goals in this matchWigry Suwałki

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.18

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.63

Wigry Suwałki

1.18

Olimpia Grudziądz creates 38% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 29 away

1.57

creates per match

0.72

1.64

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.57

Wigry Suwałki

0.72

allows per match

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.64

Wigry Suwałki

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olimpia Grudziądz+0.00on par

Wigry Suwałki+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia Grudziądz ↓

Wigry Suwałki →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Olimpia Grudziądz or draw

72%

Olimpia Grudziądz or Wigry Suwałki

75%

Draw or Wigry Suwałki

52%

Winning margin

Olimpia Grudziądz wins by 2+

25%

Wigry Suwałki wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Olimpia Grudziądz 1+ goals

80%

Olimpia Grudziądz 2+ goals

48%

Olimpia Grudziądz 3+ goals

22%

Wigry Suwałki 1+ goals

69%

Wigry Suwałki 2+ goals

33%

Wigry Suwałki 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Olimpia Grudziądz (draw refunded)

63%

Wigry Suwałki (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia Grudziądz at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

Wigry Suwałki away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.69 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia Grudziądz attack 1.57 + Wigry Suwałki defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.63

Wigry Suwałki attack 0.72 + Olimpia Grudziądz defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Olimpia Grudziądz scores more

48%

level

25%

Wigry Suwałki scores more

28%

Olimpia Grudziądz at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Olimpia Grudziądz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

A. Najemski

7'

Omran Haydary

46'

R. Bartczak← S. Łapiński

56'

I. Ocenas

62'

A. Piekarski

69'

K. Sabillo← P. Gierach

71'

M. Twarowski← João Criciuma

74'

A. Najemski

82'

S. Kamiński← D. Ciechanowski

88'

D. Frelek← K. Handzlik

90'

K. Sabillo

90+3'

M. Ozga← C. Sauczek

Olimpia

Wigry

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: M. Pawlak

71'▲M. Twarowski←▼João Criciuma

82'▲S. Kamiński←▼D. Ciechanowski

88'▲D. Frelek←▼K. Handzlik

Olimpia Grudziądz substitutes

TwarowskiKamińskiFrelek

Manager: A. Fedoruk

46'▲R. Bartczak←▼S. Łapiński

69'▲K. Sabillo←▼P. Gierach

90+3'▲M. Ozga←▼C. Sauczek

Wigry Suwałki substitutes

BartczakSabilloOzga